Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-11
- Composed
- Aug 11, 2026, 09:14 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 7 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 11, 2026, 09:14 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 95bbcbb1a8c7636a…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh666a5f2f →
- 02supersededsection_refresh65298001 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 7 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 3427d0fe
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
22.5%→13%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
75%→65.5%-9.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 5 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsIran leadership change by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsWill Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh9 hours ago
ExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh9 hours ago
Probability move
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
62.5%→55.5%-7 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot