不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-11
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月11日 上午09:14 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 8 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- public permanent
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月11日 上午09:14 [UTC]
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- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01publishedsection_refresh666a5f2f →
- 02supersededsection_refresh65298001 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 8 小時前
- 快照
- 3427d0fe
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
75%→65.5%-9.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh8 小時前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh8 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh8 小時前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh9 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh9 小時前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh9 小時前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh10 小時前
預期變化Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh10 小時前
機率變動
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
62.5%→55.5%-7 個百分點
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