Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-11
- Composed
- Aug 11, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 11, 2026, 12:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- ba567bbd0567aaff…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh0f2b1a24 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshe0d04a75 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 hours ago
- Snapshot
- f54ec54c
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?
19.5%→13%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
40%→45%+5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 5 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsUS strike on Cuba by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsIran invades Kuwait by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsIran invades Kuwait by August 31?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved up by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
Probability move
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
31%→26.5%-4.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot