Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? decreased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? decreased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 1a5c4f46-f2f7-4aed-aa75-413d9d5c1132
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 11, 2026, 04:21 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 14, 2026, 04:21 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? decreased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-11T16:21:40.064082+00:00 · external market id: 2243897 · resolution deadline at: 2026-12-31T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 80162946-ce84-461e-b44e-6a2da1e7d818
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
2375af2a-9522-42a5-8679-6ff54a2a5ca1Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? decreased by 4.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.