Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? decreased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? decreased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- ebfeabb0-9230-4009-b919-4398a4e48cd0
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 11, 2026, 04:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 14, 2026, 04:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? decreased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-11T16:15:17.894679+00:00 · external market id: 3491438 · resolution deadline at: 2026-11-30T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 22069a8e-7b15-4d2f-a650-53b302bcf7bf
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
6712dcf3-e358-4fec-a9b5-0af5b0b8086aLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? decreased by 5.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.