Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-12
- Composed
- Aug 12, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 40 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 12, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- f29629c72d30bb7e…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshe317ea3c →
- 02supersededsection_refreshba31ac80 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 40 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 73dd4f90
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
16.5%→68.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 52.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
68%→79%+11pp
ObservedYES moved up by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 3 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↑ upExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
↑ upExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 52.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh40 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh40 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.1 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh40 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh42 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh42 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh42 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh43 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh43 hours ago
Probability move
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YES moved up by 8.1 percentage points over 24 hours.
48.3%→56.4%+8.1 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot