不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-12
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月12日 上午02:15 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 40 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月12日 上午02:15 [UTC]
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- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refreshe317ea3c →
- 02supersededsection_refreshba31ac80 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 40 小時前
- 快照
- 73dd4f90
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
16.5%→68.5%· 24小時
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
68%→79%+11pp
觀測YES moved up by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
預期變化Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
↑ 上升重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 52.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高40 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高40 小時前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.1 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高40 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高42 小時前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高42 小時前
預期變化US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高42 小時前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高43 小時前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高43 小時前
機率變動
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YES moved up by 8.1 percentage points over 24 hours.
48.3%→56.4%+8.1 個百分點
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