不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-13
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月13日 下午05:15 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 2 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月13日 下午05:15 [UTC]
- Payload SHA-256
- 5e4bb086774c73f6…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh69a4db32 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh603149bd →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 2 小時前
- 快照
- 5200f402
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
36.5%→42%+5.5pp
觀測YES moved up by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
32.0%→17.5%-14.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 15.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高2 小時前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高2 小時前
預期變化Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?YES moved up by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高2 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 16.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 小時前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 小時前
預期變化Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 小時前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 17.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 小時前
機率變動
Will Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?
YES moved up by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
7.5%→12.5%+5 個百分點
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