不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-13
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月13日 上午11:19 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 7 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月13日 上午11:19 [UTC]
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- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh691618ba →
- 02supersededsection_refresh24be73a3 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 7 小時前
- 快照
- 3f7d946b
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
59.5%→81.5%· 24小時
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
57.0%→36%-21pp
觀測YES moved down by 21.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
32.0%→17.5%-14.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 22.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高7 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 21.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高7 小時前
預期變化Will no listed leader be out before 2027?YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高7 小時前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 25.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高8 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 22.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高8 小時前
預期變化Will no listed leader be out before 2027?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高8 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 23.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高9 小時前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 19.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高9 小時前
機率變動
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
22%→32%+10 個百分點
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