標準預期 · starmer
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Starmer or Petro)
- 狀態
- 有效
- 結算
- 2026年12月31日 上午12:00 [UTC]
- 市場
- 1
- 已驗證訊號
- 8
命題、來源規則與市場說明目前保留英文原文，以避免未經驗證的翻譯改變結算含義。
目前市場狀態
來源機率，不是 Open Signal 預測
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
來源 ↗This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- 交易量
- 7.2萬
- 流動性
- 5.5萬
- 觀測
- 6 小時前
結算契約
此命題如何結算
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
- 權威來源
- 由來源市場規則定義
- 截止時間
- 2026年12月31日 上午12:00 [UTC]
- 標準化器
- production-1.0.0
已驗證訊號歷史
最新在前