Public Claim · derived observation

The YES probability for Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026? increased by 3.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.

Claim ID: b7bf799b-408b-43fd-8741-4bcd9fe79ee6
Status: verified
Issued: Aug 12, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC
Valid until: Aug 15, 2026, 02:15 AM UTC

Observation

What was observed

Analysis

What the pattern supports

probability

Assessment

Open Signal’s judgment

derived

Confidencehigh

90% Claim confidence

Evidence coverage1 items

Frozen with the published Claim version

Open questions0

No open question recorded

Counterevidence0 items

None recorded in this bundle

Evidence

Published evidence bundle

This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.

Open sealed evidence

Primary and supporting

Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?

captured at: 2026-08-12T02:15:13.673432+00:00 · external market id: 3350268 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-30T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: 4e81b08e-0f5a-4c6c-a18e-4166b4a7be3f

Counterevidence

None recorded in this evidence role.

Method

Calculation and coverage

This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.

105ee579-e730-4ff7-bc36-36e0c0aebf35

Lineage

Deterministic Observation

Lineage ID: deterministic-obs-v1
Foundation model: n/a
Model version: deterministic
Charter: os-011

History

Immutable public versions

initialAug 12, 2026, 02:19 AM UTC

The YES probability for Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026? increased by 3.6 percentage points over the past 24 hours.

deterministic observation

Resolution contract

Not applicable

This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.