Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-13
- Composed
- Aug 13, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 13, 2026, 02:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- e8f4945cae3e8668…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshe03865e9 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshea116840 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 hours ago
- Snapshot
- f7a77ccf
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Observed
YES moved up by 19.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
53%→35.5%-17.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 17.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
32.0%→17.5%-14.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Steve Witkoff attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
-6.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.