Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-13
- Composed
- Aug 13, 2026, 03:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 3 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 13, 2026, 03:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- a065e576b86fb6f0…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshf7a77ccf →
- 02supersededsection_refresh69a4db32 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 3 hours ago
- Snapshot
- ea116840
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Observed
YES moved up by 17.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
53%→41%-12pp
ObservedYES moved down by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
32.0%→17.5%-14.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
-10pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.