Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-13
- Composed
- Aug 13, 2026, 10:16 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 8 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 13, 2026, 10:16 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 404a75a4e89d2712…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh23416207 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh3f7d946b →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 8 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 691618ba
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
57.5%→82.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 25.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
57.0%→34.5%-22.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 22.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
32.0%→17.5%-14.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 25.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh8 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 22.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh8 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no listed leader be out before 2027?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh8 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 23.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh9 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 19.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh9 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 13.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh9 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh10 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 21.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh10 hours ago
Probability move
Will no listed leader be out before 2027?
YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
41.5%→32%-9.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot