Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-12
- Composed
- Aug 12, 2026, 02:21 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 40 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 12, 2026, 02:21 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- bfb872332d023d3e…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh73dd4f90 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshc85a05a8 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 40 hours ago
- Snapshot
- ba31ac80
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
51.5%→43.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
34%→27.5%-6.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 3 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
↓ downExpectationsWill Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↑ upExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh40 hours ago
ExpectationsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh40 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh40 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 52.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh40 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh40 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.1 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh40 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh42 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh42 hours ago
Probability move
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YES moved up by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
66.5%→72%+5.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
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