Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-18
- Composed
- Aug 18, 2026, 05:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 38 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 18, 2026, 05:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 93e91d90c78b873a…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh564ecbd3 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh4f55ad5c →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 38 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 3cb82327
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?
4.0%→80.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 76.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?
31.0%→17%-14pp
ObservedYES moved down by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
82%→93.5%+11.6pp
ObservedYES moved up by 11.6 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 3 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Russia enter Krasnopillya by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
↓ downExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Iran target a Arab country on August 18, 2026?YES moved up by 76.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh38 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?YES moved down by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh38 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh38 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh39 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh39 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh39 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh40 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?YES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh40 hours ago
Probability move
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
YES moved down by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
33.5%→23%-10.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
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