Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-14
- Composed
- Aug 14, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 6 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 14, 2026, 10:15 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 5a36c7ff8cf91df4…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshc9af9c61 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshfb7cd079 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 6 days ago
- Snapshot
- 27730dd3
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
Observed
YES moved down by 69.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
35%→21.5%-13.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 13.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
35%→30%-5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
YES moved down by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
-10.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.