Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-16
- Composed
- Aug 16, 2026, 06:14 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 16, 2026, 06:14 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 99e434f34f0c31fe…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh44fff8ef →
- 02supersededsection_refresh49aa5114 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 days ago
- Snapshot
- 0faf17d5
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
+17.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 17.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→11.9%+5.4pp
ObservedYES moved up by 5.4 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
49%→33.5%-15.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YES moved down by 3.4 percentage points over 24 hours.
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.