Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-17
- Composed
- Aug 17, 2026, 08:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 2 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 17, 2026, 08:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 03531f9a243fa120…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh4422f004 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshdffc872a →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 2 days ago
- Snapshot
- 8f24868d
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?
Observed
YES moved up by 79.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
38.5%→23.5%-15pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→14.0%+7.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
YES moved up by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
+10.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
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Chronological, immutable publication record.