Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-16
- Composed
- Aug 16, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 3 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 16, 2026, 10:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 60d8aa66cbfdf927…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh34932e92 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh31f33704 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 3 days ago
- Snapshot
- 1d55d7c6
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
36%→92%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 56.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
15.5%→4.5%-10.9pp
ObservedYES moved down by 10.9 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→14.0%+7.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
↓ downExpectationsWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↑ upExpectationsForeign intervention in Gaza by December 31?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 56.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 10.9 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 54.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 days ago
Probability move
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
40%→30.5%-9.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot