Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-20
- Composed
- Aug 20, 2026, 12:16 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 1 hour ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 20, 2026, 12:16 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- e99631d07d2ae6cb…
- Lifecycle
- published · 1 events
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 1 hour ago
- Snapshot
- da2be5bd
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?
59.5%→100.0%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 40.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
62.5%→48.5%-14pp
ObservedYES moved down by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
40.0%→99.6%+59.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 59.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 14 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?YES moved up by 40.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh1 hour ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved down by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh1 hour ago
ExpectationsU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh1 hour ago
ExpectationsWill there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?YES moved up by 34.4 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved down by 13.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?YES moved up by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?YES moved down by 32.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?YES moved down by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
Probability move
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?
YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
15.5%→22.5%+7 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
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