Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-20
- Composed
- Aug 20, 2026, 09:18 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 20, 2026, 09:18 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- a3d4413283116487…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh7e31a428 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh2bba3a96 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 hours ago
- Snapshot
- d82e03a7
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
61.5%→47.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?
22.5%→27.5%+5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
40.0%→99.6%+59.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 59.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 14 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?
↑ upExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
↓ downExpectations2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
↑ upExpectationsFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved down by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?YES moved up by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsU.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Canada" before 2027?YES moved up by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?YES moved up by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?YES moved down by 3.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved down by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?YES moved up by 5.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
Probability move
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
53.5%→48.5%-5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot