Canonical expectation · geopolitics
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in August 2026?
- Status
- active
- Resolves
- Aug 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
- Markets
- 1
- Verified signals
- 2
Current market state
Source probability, not an Open Signal forecast
Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?
Source ↗This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
- Volume
- 75.5K
- Liquidity
- 30.9K
- Observed
- 47 minutes ago
Resolution contract
What settles this proposition
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
- Authority
- Defined by the source market rules
- Deadline
- Aug 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC
- Canonicalizer
- production-1.0.0
Verified signal history
Newest first