Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 64f5e144-dab3-4b58-9d89-2ddf745ba7f9
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 20, 2026, 12:16 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 23, 2026, 12:16 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-20T12:16:26.294395+00:00 · external market id: 704002 · resolution deadline at: 2026-09-15T00:00:00+00:00 · source market id: 37b900d3-2792-40e8-a2f3-4913605aacff
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
91ff726f-ac26-4dab-9978-98b4d0a02f32Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Will Dan Koh be the Democratic nominee for MA-06? increased by 2.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.