Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-11
- Composed
- Aug 11, 2026, 08:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 11, 2026, 08:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- bbc4c3f87ef1f051…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh4e7098ed →
- 02supersededsection_refresh5126c3a2 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 hours ago
- Snapshot
- a54580f4
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
52.5%→44%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
72%→79%+7pp
ObservedYES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 35 hours agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 5 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
↑ upExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downExpectationsWill Ralph Norman win the first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
Probability move
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
47.8%→54.8%+7.0 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot