Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-11
- Composed
- Aug 11, 2026, 10:20 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 3 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 11, 2026, 10:20 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 66ac1bad0158a7e6…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh5126c3a2 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh948a942e →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 3 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 82bc4a71
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
72.5%→79%· 24h
+6.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
66.0%→72%+6pp
ObservedYES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
35%→30%-5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 5 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downExpectations2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
↑ upExpectationsWill annual inflation be 3.3% in July?
↑ upExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 8.6 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved up by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
Probability move
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
34%→29.5%-4.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot