Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-11
- Composed
- Aug 11, 2026, 07:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 5 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 11, 2026, 07:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- a2882c39b5b49e76…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshe4d6de0c →
- 02supersededsection_refresha54580f4 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 5 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 4e7098ed
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
60.5%→68.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
13.5%→6.5%-7pp
ObservedYES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 35 hours agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 5 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?
↓ downExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↑ upExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh6 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh7 hours ago
Probability move
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
52.5%→45.5%-7 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot