Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-15
- Composed
- Aug 15, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 15, 2026, 11:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- b707415036ba42ca…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresha8ee7bd5 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh17a527be →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 days ago
- Snapshot
- 56a0b066
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
34%→40%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
22.5%→33%+10.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
49%→33.5%-15.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
↑ upExpectationsNetanyahu out by end of 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↑ upExpectationsNetanyahu out by end of 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?YES moved up by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved up by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 3.4 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved up by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?YES moved up by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved up by 19.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
Probability move
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
YES moved up by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
28.0%→37.5%+9.5 percentage points
+9.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot