Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-13
- Composed
- Aug 13, 2026, 08:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 2 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 13, 2026, 08:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 65604638d1dd6e9f…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresha04ff51a →
- 02supersededsection_refreshb315b43d →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 2 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 542e95c5
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
53.5%→36.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 17.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
45%→40.5%-4.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
32.0%→17.5%-14.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↓ downExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 17.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 3.6 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 18.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
Probability move
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YES moved up by 3.6 percentage points over 24 hours.
55.4%→59.0%+3.6 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot