Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-13
- Composed
- Aug 13, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 2 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 13, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 1842f179e3481b5c…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh5200f402 →
- 02supersededsection_refresha04ff51a →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 2 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 603149bd
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
54%→38%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
22%→16.5%-5.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
32.0%→17.5%-14.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
↑ upExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
↓ downExpectationsIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
↑ upExpectationsIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 15.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia capture all of Drobysheve by December 31?YES moved up by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 16.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 hours ago
Probability move
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
45.5%→41.5%-4 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot