Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 5.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 5.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- 475bd04e-420b-4896-a5a1-962e9b732626
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 16, 2026, 06:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 5.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-13T18:15:33.439763+00:00 · external market id: 3502066 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: f886a5a4-fba3-4e1f-99cf-9d7f8de81173
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
ecc01543-d5f5-439a-8d93-574a2abf0fb9Lineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? increased by 5.7 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.