不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-13
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月13日 下午08:15 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 2 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月13日 下午08:15 [UTC]
- Payload SHA-256
- 65604638d1dd6e9f…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresha04ff51a →
- 02supersededsection_refreshb315b43d →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 2 小時前
- 快照
- 542e95c5
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
45%→40.5%-4.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
32.0%→17.5%-14.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 17.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高2 小時前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高2 小時前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 3.6 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高2 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 18.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 小時前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 小時前
預期變化US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 小時前
預期變化US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 小時前
機率變動
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YES moved up by 3.6 percentage points over 24 hours.
55.4%→59.0%+3.6 個百分點
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