不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-13
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月13日 下午09:15 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 2 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月13日 下午09:15 [UTC]
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- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh542e95c5 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh0dba041d →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 2 小時前
- 快照
- b315b43d
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
19.5%→31%· 24小時
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
17%→10.5%-6.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
32.0%→17.5%-14.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?YES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高2 小時前
預期變化US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高2 小時前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高2 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 17.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 小時前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 小時前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 3.6 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高3 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 18.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 小時前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 小時前
機率變動
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
18.5%→12.5%-6 個百分點
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