Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-13
- Composed
- Aug 13, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 2 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 13, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 4bc272bf6fb19e14…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshb315b43d →
- 02supersededsection_refresh6a6580cc →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 2 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 0dba041d
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
Observed
YES moved down by 20.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
19.5%→32.5%+13pp
ObservedYES moved up by 13.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
32.0%→17.5%-14.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?
YES moved down by 6.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
-6pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.