Public Claim · derived observation
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
- Claim ID
- bf28225b-2a85-40e7-ab3a-0b6aaf6a520e
- Status
- verified
- Issued
- Aug 13, 2026, 09:15 PM UTC
- Valid until
- Aug 16, 2026, 09:15 PM UTC
Observation
What was observed
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
Analysis
What the pattern supports
probability
Assessment
Open Signal’s judgment
derived
90% Claim confidence
Frozen with the published Claim version
No open question recorded
None recorded in this bundle
Evidence
Published evidence bundle
This content-addressed bundle was stored and read back before the Claim became publishable.
Open sealed evidencePrimary and supporting
captured at: 2026-08-13T21:15:33.138376+00:00 · external market id: 2911832 · resolution deadline at: 2026-08-31T23:59:00+00:00 · source market id: ea80cdf2-1f53-48e2-8715-721ae82f7f9d
Counterevidence
None recorded in this evidence role.
Method
Calculation and coverage
This Claim was assembled from 1 source. The page presents the stored result and never recomputes or silently updates the published judgment.
92323fbd-23e7-415e-84e3-dcd7b9b4726bLineage
Deterministic Observation
- Lineage ID
- deterministic-obs-v1
- Foundation model
- n/a
- Model version
- deterministic
- Charter
- os-011
History
Immutable public versions
The YES probability for US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? decreased by 6.0 percentage points over the past 24 hours.
deterministic observationResolution contract
Not applicable
This observation does not make a forecast that requires resolution.