Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-14
- Composed
- Aug 14, 2026, 12:24 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 1 hour ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 14, 2026, 12:24 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 53d6195dfa552192…
- Lifecycle
- published · 1 events
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 1 hour ago
- Snapshot
- 03e3ea11
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
56.5%→12.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 44.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
55.0%→33.5%-21.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 21.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
35%→30%-5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 2 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
↓ downExpectationsIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved down by 44.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh1 hour ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 21.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh1 hour ago
ExpectationsWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?YES moved up by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh1 hour ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved down by 42.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 22.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh2 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 20.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?YES moved up by 13.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh3 hours ago
Probability move
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
YES moved up by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
19.5%→30%+10.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot