不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-17
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月17日 下午09:14 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 前天
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月17日 下午09:14 [UTC]
- Payload SHA-256
- 4755abc7c483498e…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh8f24868d →
- 02supersededsection_refresha24149c5 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 前天
- 快照
- dffc872a
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
20.5%→34.5%· 24小時
+14pp · 24h僅顯示方向 · 缺少完整七天歷史
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?
35.5%→46%+10.5pp
觀測YES moved up by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→14.0%+7.5pp
觀測YES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved up by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved up by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Will Iran target a Arab country on August 17, 2026?YES moved up by 79.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 15.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?YES moved up by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 16.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Will BYD be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
機率變動
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
64.5%→56.5%-8 個百分點
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