不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-18
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月18日 上午07:15 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 前天
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月18日 上午07:15 [UTC]
- Payload SHA-256
- 4b375f5f3a0adeee…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh322fb60c →
- 02supersededsection_refresh2138f934 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 前天
- 快照
- ae8a4a66
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
41.5%→26.5%· 24小時
-15pp · 24h僅顯示方向 · 缺少完整七天歷史
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
41.5%→25.5%-16pp
觀測YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?
40%→51.5%+11.5pp
觀測YES moved up by 11.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?YES moved down by 15.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Will DeepSeek be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved up by 27.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?YES moved down by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Will Alibaba be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
預期變化Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高前天
機率變動
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
42.5%→52.5%+10 個百分點
+10pp · 24h僅顯示方向 · 缺少完整七天歷史
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