Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-19
- Composed
- Aug 19, 2026, 07:15 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 13 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 19, 2026, 07:15 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 50d11dd447ebf628…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh7cc68548 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshe2c51a63 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 13 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 973b3547
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?
-8pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Observed
YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
56.5%→49%-7.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
40.0%→99.6%+59.5pp
ObservedYES moved up by 59.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Live signal feed
Most recent first
Significant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
Probability move
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.