Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-13
- Composed
- Aug 13, 2026, 01:16 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 17 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 13, 2026, 01:16 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 1f59dd1068d89d2c…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh055f198e →
- 02supersededsection_refreshab169eeb →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 17 hours ago
- Snapshot
- e26a262b
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
68.5%→56.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
10%→4.1%-5.9pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.9 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?
32.0%→17.5%-14.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↓ downExpectationsNetanyahu out by end of 2026?
↑ upExpectationsIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?
↓ downExpectationsIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved down by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh17 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?YES moved down by 5.9 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh17 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh17 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no listed leader be out before 2027?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh18 hours ago
ExpectationsIran leadership change by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh18 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh18 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 42.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh19 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh19 hours ago
Probability move
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES moved down by 4.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
29.0%→24.5%-4.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot