Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-12
- Composed
- Aug 12, 2026, 06:16 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 24 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 12, 2026, 06:16 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- db3156c2a3f780d8…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh1f57c05f →
- 02supersededsection_refresh7e960389 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 24 hours ago
- Snapshot
- cc539197
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
68.5%→53%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
95%→99.8%+4.8pp
ObservedYES moved up by 4.8 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 3 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↑ upExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh24 hours ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?YES moved up by 4.8 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh24 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh24 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh25 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh25 hours ago
ExpectationsWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh25 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 17.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh26 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh26 hours ago
Probability move
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
9%→5.1%-4.0 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot