不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-12
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月12日 下午06:16 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 24 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月12日 下午06:16 [UTC]
- Payload SHA-256
- db3156c2a3f780d8…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh1f57c05f →
- 02supersededsection_refresh7e960389 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 24 小時前
- 快照
- cc539197
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
95%→99.8%+4.8pp
觀測YES moved up by 4.8 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高24 小時前
預期變化US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?YES moved up by 4.8 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高24 小時前
預期變化US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高24 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 16.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高25 小時前
預期變化US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高25 小時前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高25 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 17.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高26 小時前
預期變化US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 10.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高26 小時前
機率變動
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
9%→5.1%-4.0 個百分點
典藏快照
典藏
依時間排列、不可變的出版紀錄。
編製區段Claims觸發狀態快照