Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-12
- Composed
- Aug 12, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 20 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 12, 2026, 10:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- f17ec7781025d437…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh50b2cc8b →
- 02supersededsection_refresh6cc3e226 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 20 hours ago
- Snapshot
- c65c087a
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
56.5%→45.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved down by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
27%→19.5%-7.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Moscow air traffic suspended by August 31?
71.0%→33.6%-37.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 37.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 3 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved down by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh20 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh20 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh20 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Houthis successfully target shipping on August 13, 2026?YES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh21 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 12.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh21 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh21 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh22 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 9.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh22 hours ago
Probability move
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
YES moved down by 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
59.0%→53.5%-5.5 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot