Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-16
- Composed
- Aug 16, 2026, 11:14 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 16, 2026, 11:14 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 73e35dcbc5fcc6f1…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshe57a76cb →
- 02supersededsection_refreshe579bd37 →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 days ago
- Snapshot
- bfd0e915
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?
6.5%→14.0%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
39.5%→35.5%-4pp
ObservedYES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
47%→13.5%-33.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 33.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Source Polymarket GammaConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 6 days agoAging · still validTopicSignal record
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↑ upExpectationsNetanyahu out by end of 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
↓ downExpectationsWill Chuck Gray be the WY-AL Republican nominee?
↑ upExpectationsWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
↑ upExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
↑ upExpectationsWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downExpectationsNetanyahu out by end of 2026?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?YES moved up by 7.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?YES moved up by 6.9 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsIsrael military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?YES moved up by 5.3 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved down by 28.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
Probability move
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES moved down by 4.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
16.5%→12.5%-4 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot