Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-12
- Composed
- Aug 12, 2026, 09:14 AM UTC
- Last verified update
- 33 hours ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 12, 2026, 09:14 AM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 48a001387c98d169…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refreshb7eaa811 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh20894fdd →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 33 hours ago
- Snapshot
- 704451c6
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
16.5%→56.5%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 40.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
68.5%→78.5%+10pp
ObservedYES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
35%→30%-5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 7 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downExpectationsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?
↑ upExpectationsIsrael closes its airspace by August 15?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
↑ upExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downExpectationsWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
↑ upSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 40.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh33 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 41.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh34 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh34 hours ago
ExpectationsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh34 hours ago
ExpectationsWill Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 51.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh35 hours ago
ExpectationsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh35 hours ago
Probability move
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
20.5%→29.5%+9 percentage points
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
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