不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-12
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月12日 上午09:14 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 33 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月12日 上午09:14 [UTC]
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- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refreshb7eaa811 →
- 02supersededsection_refresh20894fdd →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 33 小時前
- 快照
- 704451c6
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?
16.5%→56.5%· 24小時
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?
68.5%→78.5%+10pp
觀測YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
35%→30%-5pp
觀測YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 40.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高33 小時前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 10.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高33 小時前
預期變化US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高33 小時前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 41.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高34 小時前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高34 小時前
預期變化Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 6.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高34 小時前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved up by 51.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高35 小時前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?YES moved up by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高35 小時前
機率變動
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
YES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
20.5%→29.5%+9 個百分點
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