不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-15
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月15日 下午10:15 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 4 天前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月15日 下午10:15 [UTC]
- Payload SHA-256
- 933560effbbb7cca…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh92aa9dcb →
- 02supersededsection_refresh56a0b066 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 4 天前
- 快照
- a8ee7bd5
主訊號 · 預期變化
追蹤主題 →Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
70.8%→67.3%· 24小時
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
26.5%→37.5%+11pp
觀測YES moved up by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
49%→33.5%-15.5pp
觀測YES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 3.4 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 天前
預期變化Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved up by 11.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 天前
預期變化Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?YES moved up by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 天前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 8.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 天前
預期變化Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved up by 19.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 天前
預期變化Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?YES moved up by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 天前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 天前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?YES moved up by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高4 天前
機率變動
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
YES moved up by 12.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
22.5%→34.5%+12 個百分點
+12pp · 24h僅顯示方向 · 缺少完整七天歷史
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