Immutable archive edition
Edition · 2026-08-15
- Composed
- Aug 15, 2026, 08:14 PM UTC
- Last verified update
- 4 days ago
- Record class
- public permanent
- First published
- Aug 15, 2026, 08:14 PM UTC
- Payload SHA-256
- 8f6b394275ae1eea…
- Lifecycle
- superseded · 2 events
- 01publishedsection_refresh6e8016fd →
- 02supersededsection_refresh92aa9dcb →
- Active Sections
- 2
- Verified signals
- 30
- Live changes
- 20
- Last material update
- 4 days ago
- Snapshot
- 77518113
Lead signal · Expectations
Track topic →Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?
34%→43%· 24h
Observed
YES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signals
3 Verified
Secondary signal · Expectations
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
9.5%→12.5%+3pp
ObservedYES moved up by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Expectations
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
49%→33.5%-15.5pp
ObservedYES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
Secondary signal · Rules
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
not published→final
ObservedAmendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
Source Transportation Department, Federal Aviation AdministrationConfidence highEvidence 1Data as of 13 days agoAging · still validSignal record
Live signal feed
Most recent first
ExpectationsIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?
↓ downExpectationsWill Trump and Putin not meet?
↓ downExpectationsUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
↓ downSignificant changes
Verified changes impacting monitored signals
TypeChangeSourceConfidenceEvidenceVerified
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved up by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?YES moved up by 3.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved up by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh4 days ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 17.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?YES moved up by 3.4 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?YES moved up by 24.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsIran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30?YES moved up by 17.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
ExpectationsWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?YES moved up by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gammahigh5 days ago
Probability move
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?
YES moved up by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.
23.0%→46.5%+23.5 percentage points
+23.5pp · 24hDirection only · complete 7d history unavailable
Archive snapshots
Archive
Chronological, immutable publication record.
ComposedSectionsClaimsTriggerStateSnapshot