不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-18
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月18日 下午04:14 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 39 小時前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月18日 下午04:14 [UTC]
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- 6c551ba4deb55947…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refresh6bd8942a →
- 02supersededsection_refresh3cb82327 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 39 小時前
- 快照
- 564ecbd3
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
65.5%→57.5%-8pp
觀測YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?
82%→93.5%+11.6pp
觀測YES moved up by 11.6 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 9.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高39 小時前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 8.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高39 小時前
預期變化US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高39 小時前
預期變化Will Xiaomi be added to the Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高40 小時前
預期變化Will Russia capture Serhiivka by December 31?YES moved down by 14.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高40 小時前
預期變化US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?YES moved down by 9.2 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高40 小時前
預期變化Will CATL be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?YES moved down by 23.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高41 小時前
預期變化Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?YES moved down by 14.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高41 小時前
機率變動
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
77.7%→70.7%-7 個百分點
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