不可變的典藏期次
期次 · 2026-08-14
- 編製時間
- 2026年8月14日 上午08:15 [UTC]
- 最近驗證更新
- 6 天前
- 紀錄類別
- 永久公開紀錄
- 首次發布
- 2026年8月14日 上午08:15 [UTC]
- Payload SHA-256
- 12cc3d250f70d6ef…
- 生命週期
- superseded · 2 個事件
- 01已發布section_refreshd3f313c6 →
- 02supersededsection_refreshc9af9c61 →
- 有效區段
- 2
- 已驗證訊號
- 30
- 即時變化
- 20
- 最近實質更新
- 6 天前
- 快照
- 4c9fc435
次要訊號
3 已驗證
次要訊號 · 預期變化
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
43.5%→36.5%-7pp
觀測YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 預期變化
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?
35%→30%-5pp
觀測YES moved down by 5.0 percentage points over 24 hours.
次要訊號 · 規則變化
Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL
未發布→已定案
觀測Amendment of Class D and Class E Airspace; Chicago/Rockford, IL is recorded by the Federal Register as final.
即時訊號
最新在前
重大變化
影響受監測訊號的已驗證變化
類型Change來源信心程度證據驗證時間
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved down by 66.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高6 天前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高6 天前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 6.1 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高6 天前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved down by 65.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高6 天前
預期變化US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?YES moved down by 7.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高6 天前
預期變化Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?YES moved up by 5.4 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高6 天前
預期變化Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?YES moved down by 71.0 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高6 天前
預期變化Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?YES moved down by 15.5 percentage points over 24 hours.Polymarket Gamma高6 天前
機率變動
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
YES moved up by 6.1 percentage points over 24 hours.
57.1%→63.2%+6.1 個百分點
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